December cotton is slightly lower today, even as Hurricane Michael has achieved Category 4 status overnight. Potentially in the path lies the bulk of the Georgia cotton crop. We are expecting a major wipe-out of the area as copious amounts of rain and super strong winds will pound this crop.
One model does have the storm hooking below Georgia, scurrying across the width of Florida towards the Jacksonville area. However, that path seems unlikely, given the upper wind currents. Still, Georgia is hoping for the best, but preparing, as much as it can, for the worst.
In other news, USDA did released its weekly crop condition data yesterday, delayed one day because of the Columbus Day holiday. The crop stands 42% good/excellent versus last week’s 42% and 60% good/excellent on the five-year average. As far as harvest, 25% of the crop is gathered versus 18% at this same time one year ago. No doubt the Alabama and Georgia mechanical pickers have been running wide open, 24/7.
Tomorrow, USDA will release its monthly supply-demand data for September. Last month, the crop was raised some 500,000 plus bales to 19.65 million. Expectations suggest a 150,000-bale reduction will be seen. That ought to lower domestic carry somewhat. World stocks are expected to fall fractionally as well.
As for this office, we are sure to lose power as we are in the projected path of Michael. We will not be able to provide commentary until Monday. We have apprised DTN of our situation.
For today, support for December cotton is 7610 and 7535, with resistance at 7880 and 7980.