DTN Grain Midday: Harvest Delays Limit Pressure in Corn

Corn harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

Corn has extended the bounce to begin the week, while beans have remained red since the opening last night to midday.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade firmer after seeing two-sided trade overnight. Mother Nature is providing some wet harvest conditions which are noted slowing harvest progress in many areas, with a few spots moving along quickly.

Ethanol margins remain tight with production likely to fade near term due to the higher corn and lack of upside movement in ethanol. Crude and RBOB are firmer so blender margins continue to look good.

Corn basis will likely see more pressure harvest here in the near term but delays could limit pressure. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.263 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress should show steady conditions, above average maturity, and harvest close to average.

On the December chart futures support moved above the 10-day, at $3.52, on Friday then 20-day at 3.58 today which are our support levels at midday. Resistance is at the $3.67 1/2 50-day then the $3.69 3/4 1-month higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade up 3 to 5 from the early lows. China trade issues flaring up again in the news over the weekend as tariffs take effect. Meal is $1.50 lower, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher at midday.

Soybean basis remains historically wide across the belt with storage and shipping concerns continuing to dominate with the recent uptick in fresh sales needing to be sustained with another 162,000 metric tons announced this morning. Crush margins remain strong with oil starting to show broader strength.

Early planting in South America is underway with conditions on the dry side going in but no major concerns expected at this juncture. The Brazilian and Argentine currencies remain historically cheap. China lowered tariffs on neighboring countries which could offer some more work-a-rounds on trade with US/China trade talk progress remaining at a standstill.

The weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions, ahead of normal maturity and average harvest progress. The weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 693,860 metric tons.

On the November chart support is the 20-day at $8.37 with the 10-day below that at $8.34, with resistance the recent high at $8.55.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with with the weaker dollar and world prices adding support. Trade was unable to extend the early morning strength though. The US dollar is at the bottom of the recent range but firmer this morning.

Russia will continue to work on spring wheat harvest and winter wheat planting with little change in the weather patterns, with harvest in Canada impacted by snow as well. Australia looks to continue the recent weather pattern with more feed grain imports possible.

The weekly export inspections remained in line with recent weeks at 409,452 metric tons. The weekly crop progress is expected to show spring wheat harvest complete, and winter wheat planting near average.

On the December Kansas City chart, we have support at the 10-day at $5.19 with resistance at the 200-day at $5.43.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 150. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.40, unleaded up 4 cents and ethanol mixed. Livestock trade is weaker with only nearby hogs firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2.

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