December cotton is angling lower as a record Dow Jones and an impending harvest is weighing on prices. Thursday the Dow took out its January high, thereby siphoning off speculative interest away from commodities to equities.
Moreover, cotton is set to commence its harvest of what will be a huge crop of 19 million plus bales which, given the current trading environment, may be hard to move.
The U.S./China trade war continues on, despite some small tweets from Mr. Trump, saying he is willing to talk with China at any time. Yet, besides China, the U.S. has other trading fusses with Turkey and Pakistan. The totality of these trade disputes being numerically played out in the weekly sales and exports reports.
Although Thursday’s weekly sales were higher than the previous week, neither time reflected triple-digit business. In fact, on the whole, there was small participation for China, Turkey, and Pakistan.
To date, U.S. cumulative cotton sales stand at 61% of USDA’s forecast for the 2018-19 marketing year. This compares to the five-year average of 41.4%. However, with a huge Indian crop soon arriving, the U.S. may suffer cancellations in the coming weeks.
Friday’s close-in support ought to be found at 77.50 cents and 75.90 cents, while resistance will be located at 79.33 cents and 79.90 cents.