Big crops keep getting bigger, according to USDA’s latest yield estimates. The agency’s forecast for corn yields increased by 2.9 bushels per acre while soybean yields grew by 1.2 bpa.
The national average corn yield is now estimated at 181.3 bpa with production totaling 14.8 billion bushels. The yield and production estimate came in above the range of pre-report estimates.
On soybeans, USDA expects farmers to harvest an average 52.8 bpa, putting production at 4.69 billion bushels. Both were in line with pre-report expectations.
Today’s crop estimates were released in USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports. USDA’s yield estimates take field surveys into account.
The U.S. production and supply and demand estimates are bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The world estimates are bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, he said.
Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.
Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.
You can also access the full reports here:
USDA increased its corn yield estimate to 181.3 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bpa from last month and 4.7 bpa from last year. If realized, yields will set a new record.
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At 14.82 billion bushels, corn production is up 2% from August and up 2% from last year.
U.S. new-crop (2018-19) ending stocks grew to 1.774 billion bushels, up 90 mb from its August estimates of 1.68 bb, mostly due to higher production. USDA increased feed and residual demand by 50 mb, ethanol use by 25 mb and exports by 125 mb.
USDA pegged the range of average farm gate prices at $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel, a dime lower on the high and low end compared to last month.
Domestic old-crop (2017-18) ending stocks came in at 2.0 billion bushels, compared to last month’s 2.03 bb estimate.
Globally, USDA pegged new-crop ending stocks at 157.03 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.54 mmt from last month, and old-crop ending stocks at 194.15 mmt, up 1.2 mmt.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.69 billion bushels, up 2% from last month and 7% from last year. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, USDA expects yields to average a record high 52.8 bushels per acre.
USDA estimated new-crop (2018-19) ending stocks at 845 million bushels, a 60 mb change from last month’s 785 mb estimate. USDA lowered its forecast for beginning stocks (also known as 2017-18 ending stocks) by 35 mb, increased its forecast for domestic crush by 10 mb and left its export forecast unchanged.
The range of farm gate prices, at $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, shifted downward compared to last month’s $7.65 to $10.15 per bushel range.
USDA lowered old-crop ending stocks to 395 mb, citing a 20 mb increase in export and a 15 mb increase in crush.
Globally, new-crop ending stocks increased by 2.36 mmt from last month, coming in at 108.26 mmt. USDA lowered its forecast for Chinese imports by 1 mmt to 94 mmt, citing slower growth in protein meal demand.
At 94.74 mmt, old-crop ending stocks declined by less than 1 mmt.
USDA forecast all wheat production at 1.88 billion bushels with new-crop ending stocks of 935 billion bushels, both unchanged from last month.
The average farm gate prices is expected to range between $4.70 and $5.50 per bushel, tightening the range by a dime on each the high and low end.
Global ending stocks for 2018-19 wheat came in at 261.29 million metric tons, at the high end of pre-report estimates but still 5% below last year’s record. USDA increased its global production forecast by 3.4 mmt, largely due to increased production in Russia and India that offset declines in Australia and Canada. UDSA says Russian farmers will harvest 71 mmt in 2018-19.
Old-crop ending stocks were 274.36 mmt, up about 1 mmt from last month.
USDA will release its Small Grains Summary on Friday, Sept. 28. It will contain the agency’s final estimates of 2017-18 wheat production and yield by class.
Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, Sept. 12, as he evaluates USDA’s latest production estimates for the U.S. 2018-2019 crops as well as old-crop and new-crop supply and demand tables. To register, visit here.
|U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2018-2019|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2018-2019|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-2018|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2017-18|