WASDE Wheat: Global Stocks Raised

The U.S. 2018/19 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. There are offsetting by-class changes for both exports and imports. The season-average farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 to $5.50.

Global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.7 million tons on a 3.4-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. The Russian crop is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest results to date in the winter wheat region and continued excellent weather in the spring wheat belt. Kazakhstan is raised 0.5 million tons also on excellent spring wheat conditions.

Production is increased 2.7 million tons in India to a record 99.7 million on updated government data. These increases are partially offset by a 2.0-million-ton decrease in Australia and a 1.0-million-ton decrease in Canada, both reflecting continued dry conditions during the growing season.

Global exports are lowered 2.5 million tons with a 2.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Canada, both on smaller crops. Indonesia and Iran imports are down 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively.

Global use is raised 2.3 million tons primarily on a 2.0-million-ton increase for Russia feed and residual use and a 1.0-million-ton increase for EU feed and residual use. With total supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 2.3 million tons to 261.3 million but are 5 percent below last year’s record.

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