WASDE Oilseeds: Record High Domestic Soybean Production

U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 138.4 million tons, up 2.9 million from last month with higher soybean and cottonseed production forecasts partly offset by a lower peanut forecast. Soybean production is projected at a record 4,693 million bushels, up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre.

Soybean supplies are raised with higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks. With soybean crush up 10 million bushels and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 845 million bushels, up 60 million from last month.

The 2018/19 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, down $0.30 at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are lowered $5.00 at the midpoint to $290 to $330 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound.

Changes for 2017/18 include higher exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 20 million bushels to 2,130 million based on official trade data through July and indications from August export inspections. With crush raised 15 million bushels, ending stocks are projected at 395 million bushels, down 35 million from last month.

The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, reduced trade, and increased stocks compared to last month. Higher production of soybeans and cottonseed more than offsets lower forecasts for peanuts, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed.

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Soybean production is increased 2.2 million tons, with larger crops for the United States and China that are partly offset by lower projections for Canada, India, and Uruguay.

Global soybean exports for 2018/19 are reduced 1.1 million tons to 156.9 million, with lower shipments for Canada and Uruguay. China’s 2018/19 soybean imports are reduced 1 million tons to 94 million as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18 continues into the next marketing year.

Partly offsetting this change are higher imports for Egypt and Iran. Other notable oilseed trade changes include lower palm oil imports for India in 2017/18, with export reductions for Malaysia and Indonesia.

Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are projected 2.3 million tons higher, with increased stocks for the United States and Argentina that are partly offset by reduced stocks for Brazil.

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