WASDE Cotton: Increased U.S. Production, Exports, Ending Stocks

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

The 2018/19 U.S. cotton estimates include larger production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 447,000 bales, with increases in the Southwest, Delta, and Southeast. Beginning stocks are revised 100,000 bales lower based on indicated stocks as of July 31, 2018, while domestic mill use is reduced slightly in 2017/18 based on recent activity.

The 2018/19 export forecast is raised 200,000 bales. Ending stocks are now projected higher at 4.7 million bales, or 25 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing-year average farm price is unchanged at 70 to 80 cents per pound.

Larger 2018/19 world cotton production mostly offsets lower beginning stocks, and world ending stocks are only slightly higher this month. Beginning stocks are reduced for India and the United States due to revisions in 2017/18 estimates.

Production is raised for China, Brazil, and the United States but is lowered for Australia. Global consumption is increased 300,000 bales due to higher expected use in India, and trade is unchanged.

World ending stocks are projected about 400,000 bales higher this month, at 77.5 million bales, equivalent to 61 percent of world consumption. If realized, this stocks/use ratio would be its lowest in 8 years, but higher than in virtually every other year before 2010/11.

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