WASDE Coarse Grains: Higher U.S. Corn Production Offsets Increased Demand

Corn harvest. Photo: Texas A&M AgriLife

This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased domestic use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million from last month on an increased yield forecast. If realized, the crop would be the second highest on record.

Among the major producing states, yields are forecast to be record high in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, and South Dakota. Corn supplies are higher from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a small decline in beginning stocks due to higher estimated exports for 2017/18.

Feed and residual use for 2018/19 is raised 50 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 90 million bushels from last month.

The season-average corn price received by producers is projected 10 cents lower with a midpoint of $3.50 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast up 5.1 million tons to 1,347.2 million. The 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month.

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Foreign corn production is forecast higher than last month with projected increases for the EU, Angola, Paraguay, Turkey, and Serbia more than offsetting declines for Canada, South Africa, and Guatemala. EU corn production is raised, mostly reflecting increases for Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and France. In both Bulgaria and Romania, yields are expected to be record high.

World barley production is lowered, with reductions for the EU, Australia, and Ukraine more than offsetting increases for Kazakhstan and Russia.

Corn exports for 2018/19 are raised for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, but lowered for Canada and South Africa. Imports are raised for the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Guatemala, with partly offsetting declines for Algeria and Saudi Arabia. For 2017/18, exports are lowered for both Brazil and Argentina, reflecting slower-than-expected trade to date.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are down from last month, with declines for Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine, Canada, and Serbia more than offsetting increases for Angola, Paraguay, the EU, Brazil, Turkey, and India. Global corn stocks, at 157.0 million tons, are up 1.5 million from last month.

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