DTN Grain Close: Caught in Commodity Price Slide

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

September contracts of corn, soybeans and all three wheats finished lower Wednesday, along with nearly all commodities, except for livestock. Along with general commodity price concerns, grains and soybeans were also pressured by a favorable seven-day forecast for the central U.S.


Midday: We have lower trade across the board at midday after some brief higher trade overnight.


Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back slightly from the gains seen on Tuesday. Two-sided action was seen, but when outside markets turned negative and soybeans turned lower, corn saw spillover pressure from them. The weather forecast looks fairly mild in the near term. The weekly ethanol report showed production down 28,000 barrels per day, with stocks up 94,000 barrels.

Corn basis will likely continue to fade with more harvest activity building with the advanced crop. The export wire has been more active in recent days with exporters covering more near-term needs with 55,000 metric tons old crop, and 59,472 of new crop sold to unknown.

On the September chart, futures have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.49, and resistance the 20- and 50-day at $3.62.


Soybean trade is 6 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade dipping after the early week strength as demand concerns move back to the forefront along with mild weather. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower, and oil is 45 to 55 points lower. The weather forecast has drifted wetter for all but the northwest part of the belt.

Bean basis has started to slide ahead of harvest with the slow start to export bookings offsetting strong crush margins. Early planting in South America will begin next month with much of Brazil on the dry side at the moment, but it is too early to provide much excitement one way or another.

On the September chart, trade has support at the lower Bollinger Band at $8.40 and resistance the 20-day at $8.75.


Wheat trade is 8 to 13 cents lower with trade falling back to the lows after early day session strength as traders focus on nearby supply and slow export demand for the U.S. Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather returning this week with harvest expanding. Yields are mixed so far.

The strong U.S. dollar is keeping the U.S. less competitive on the world market in the near term with the ongoing issues. Matif wheat is flat to lower, as well, with trade drifting below last week’s highs. Australia remains on the dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal, as well, with some relief for some areas.

On the September KC, we are have support at the 100-day at $5.33 and resistance the 20-day at $5.47.

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