December cotton lost another 2% Wednesday as speculators liquidated their long positions, fearful of trade disruptions with Turkey and China. The economic stakes were raised on Tuesday when the Turkish government called for a boycott of U.S. goods. As of this writing, we have not seen cotton on any list, but it is that uncertainty that has the ICE Futures so nervous.
In additional to the Turkish woes, the market is still smarting from last week’s bearish supply-demand data. For that report the market was anticipating a cut of 300,000 bale, but unexpectedly saw a 700,000 bale increase.
Regarding China, there was no positive movement on the trade war front. In fact, the Trump administration supposedly will announced increased tariffs of $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Thursday USDA will report weekly sales and exports report, the first accounting since the supply-demand report of last Friday. It is thought the U.S. may have done some business, but it most likely will not show up on this report, but rather next week.
Estimated volume Wednesday was 36,000 contracts. December cotton closed at $.8074 down 230 points, March 2019 at $.8104, down 210 points, and December 2019 at $.7684 down 120 points.