December soybean meal closed up $9.00 Tuesday, becoming the first grain-related contract to erase Friday’s big loss, thanks to resilient commercial demand for meal. November soybeans were up 11 cents and December corn was up 6 cents, also benefiting from meal’s impressive popularity.
Midday: Soybeans are the midday leader with corn and wheat mostly firmer.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade trying to rebuild some momentum at the lower end of the recent range with support from the soybeans. The weather forecast looks fairly mild in the near term with most rains south of I-80.
Ethanol margins continue to not be great. Ethanol is down again to start the week and is now nearly 70 cents a gallon cheaper than unleaded futures with summer driving season coming to an end soon. This should encourage more usage and blending in the near term with futures edging higher this morning.
Corn basis even with this board selloff is fading ahead of harvest and late-season corn movement with harvest starting in the drier areas. The weekly Crop Progress report had conditions 1 percentage point lower at 70% good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor. Seventy-three percent of the crop was in the dough stage, 17 percentage points above average, and 26% was dented, 13 points ahead of average.
On the September chart, futures have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.42, and resistance the 20- and 50-day at $3.62.
Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents higher at midday with support from Argentina re-imposing export taxes on soy products amid ongoing governmental financial issues. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher, and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. The weather forecast has drifted wetter for all but the northwest part of the belt.
Bean basis has started to slide ahead of harvest with the slow start to export bookings offsetting strong crush margins. Early planting in South America will begin next month with much of Brazil on the dry side at the moment.
Weekly Crop Progress showed conditions 1 percentage point lower at 66% good to excellent and 10% poor to very poor. Soybeans were estimated at 96% blooming, 4 percentage points above average, and 84% were setting pods, 12 points above average.
On the September chart, trade has support at the lower Bollinger Band at $8.38 and resistance the 20-day at $8.74.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher on the winter wheats, with spring wheat 3 to 5 cents lower with harvest pressure, with trade pulling back from dime higher action overnight on continued production concerns. Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather returning this week with harvest expanding. Yields are mixed so far.
Trade continues to worry about taxes and restrictions off of the Black Sea as harvest wraps up, but the cheaper currency will help to offset in the near term with the Black Sea looking to be able to maintain the pace near term.
HRW basis remains sideways to lower as the U.S. struggles to compete on the export market even with the end of European harvest amid their difficulties. Australia remains on the dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal as well.
Weekly Crop Progress had spring wheat 1 percentage point better at 75% good to excellent and 5% poor to very poor. Spring wheat was estimated 35% harvested vs. 27% on average, and winter wheat 94% harvested vs. 96% on average. Export inspections showed some improvement at 462,854 metric tons.
On the September KC, we are have support at the 100-day at $5.33, and resistance the 20-day at $5.44.