WASDE Rice: Increased Domestic Beginning Stocks Offset by Reduced Production

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

Total U.S. rice supplies for 2018/19 are raised slightly from last month due to increased beginning stocks that were mostly offset by a smaller crop. Beginning stocks are raised 2.5 million cwt on a 3.5-million export reduction for the 2017/18 crop year that is partially offset by increased domestic and residual use.

U.S. rice production is lowered 2.1 million cwt to 210.9 million on the first survey-based yield forecast of the 2018/19 season. Long-grain production is lowered 2.8 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain is raised 0.7 million cwt. The all rice yield forecast is lowered 76 pounds per acre from the previous forecast to 7,523.

Exports for the 2018/19 crop year are lowered 4 million cwt to 98 million on a lack of price competitiveness relative to both Asian and South American exporters. Ending stocks are raised 1.4 million cwt to 43.6 million and the 2018/19 all rice season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.40 to $12.40.

Global supplies for 2018/19 are lowered fractionally on reduced production for Madagascar and Iraq. World trade is raised slightly, led by higher Pakistan exports and Iraq imports. Global exports remain record large. Global consumption and ending stocks are each lowered fractionally.

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