WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Production Raised on Higher Yields

U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 135.6 million tons, up 7.7 million from last month mainly due to a higher soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 4,586 million bushels, up 276 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 88.9 million acres, unchanged from the July projection.

The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.6 bushels per acre is 3.1 bushels above last month and 2.5 bushels above last year. As higher production more than offsets lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2018/19 are projected at a record 5,040 million bushels, 5 percent above last month.

With larger supplies, crush and exports are raised 15 and 20 million bushels respectively. Ending stocks are projected at 785 million bushels, up 205 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018/19 is forecast at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint, down 35 cents from last month. The soybean meal price forecast at $295 to $335 per short ton, down $20 at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound.

U.S. soybean changes for 2017/18 include higher exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2,110 million on strong export sales and shipments through July. Crush is raised 10 million bushels to a record 2,040 million on strong soybean meal exports. With increased crush and exports, soybean ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to 430 million.

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Global oilseed 2018/19 supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, crush, and stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 603.1 million tons, up 10.5 million with higher soybean, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed.

Global soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are raised on higher U.S. production. Sunflowerseed production is higher for the EU, benefitting from favorable weather conditions in southern and southeastern Europe. Conversely, hot, dry weather in northern Europe resulted in a 1-million-ton reduction to EU rapeseed production.

Other oilseed production changes include higher sunflowerseed and rapeseed production for Russia and Ukraine due to beneficial weather conditions over the past few weeks.

Global oilseed exports for 2018/19 are projected at 182.5 million tons, up 1.2 million with higher soybean exports for the United States and higher rapeseed exports for Ukraine. Global crush is raised 1.2 million tons to 501.8 million. Lower soybean crush for China and rapeseed crush for the EU are offset by higher rapeseed crush for Russia and sunflowerseed crush for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. With larger increases to supply than use, global oilseed stocks are raised 8.3 million tons to 119.9 million.

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