December cotton remains in a slow and tedious trade as it awaits tomorrow’s supply-demand data from USDA. The report will be issued at noon eastern, and will be the first release in which all interested parties will have simultaneous access to the data.
Prior, the actual data was given to news reporters 90 minutes ahead of the official release time. However, those reporters were in lock-down in the USDA’s informational room, meaning no outside communication with the world.
Still, given today’s massive social media structure, USDA felt it would be more transparent to issue its data to all at the same time. The news outlets have argued there may be more reporting errors and thus additional and unnecessary volatility, but soon we all will see.
Beyond that report, there is a real chance for rain this weekend in west Texas. Odds now call for an 80% chance of rain for west Texas each day, Friday through Sunday. Although the dry-land cotton there is essentially “kaput”, rain can still perk-up the irrigated fields.
This morning USDA reported net sales for 2018/2019, which began August 1, of 176,600 bales. Major buyers included Vietnam (93,800), China (12,200), Turkey (12,100), and Bangladesh (8,800). A total of 1,527,700 RB in sales were carried over from the 2017/2018 marketing year, which ended July 31.
Exports for the period ending July 31 of 272,800 bales brought accumulated exports to 14,830,600 bales, up 7% from the prior years’ total of 13,823,100 bales. The primary destinations were Vietnam (78,100), China (50,200), Turkey (36,200), Indonesia (28,100), and Bangladesh (15,500). Exports for August 1-2 totaled 43,100 bales, all for Vietnam (12,000), Mexico (6,900), Indonesia (4,800), Turkey (4,700), and South Korea (4,700).
Overnight estimated volume is 4,800 contracts. Key support for December cotton is 8675 and 8610. Resistance is 8920 and 9000