After two days of active trading, the grain sector took a break Wednesday and settled near Tuesday’s closes on light volume. Corn and soybeans were a little higher while all three wheats ended lower.
Midday: Wheat and soybeans lead firm trade at midday.
Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade trying to build some positive momentum into midweek with a small gap higher overnight. Cooler weather looks to hang around the next couple weeks with mixed moisture potential with a growing focus on early August weather with the advanced state of the crop.
Ethanol board margins remain positive with some pressure from crude with ethanol futures edging higher to narrow blender margins with the energy weakness and firmer ethanol futures again overnight.
Corn basis has been flat to firmer for the most part. The weekly Crop Progress report showed conditions down 3 percentage points at 72% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor. Silking was 63% complete vs. 37% on average.
On the September chart, we are right at the 10-day at $3.48, with the 20-day at $3.54 the next round up. Support is the fresh low of $3.37 scored last week with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.38 above that.
Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade fighting off attempts to break lower this morning with trade looking for two strong finishes in a row. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Brazil remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics issues with Brazil with premiums around $2.05.
Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead with record crush again for the month of June, even if it was slightly below expectations. The daily export wire has remained quiet. Weather shouldn’t be a major driver near term for soybeans, but pod fill will be here soon.
Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 2 percentage points at 69% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor, with 65% blooming vs. 45% on average, and 26% setting pods vs. 11% on average.
On the August chart, the 10-day is at $8.43 is again the first level of resistance, which we are still below even with the strength today with further support the lower Bollinger Band at $8.11 with the next level resistance the 20-day at $8.60.
Wheat trade is 6 to 12 cents higher with trade regaining the Monday losses this morning. Winter wheats are leading. Harvest pressure should start to fade as it winds down for the winter wheat. Spring wheat should see good progress in Canada with drier weather showing up again for some. Russian harvest continues to move along, as well, with yields remaining below last year’s levels.
HRW basis has remained solid through harvest with the better protein with offered premiums declining. Weekly crop progress had winter wheat at 74% complete vs. 71% on average, with spring wheat at 80% good to excellent, and 4% poor to very poor, unchanged on the week with 91% headed vs. 85% on average.
On the September, KC is just above the 20-day at $4.90 and the 10-day at $4.92 at midday with the 200-day at $5.11 the next level of resistance.