November soybeans gained 11 1/2 cents Monday while September K.C. wheat was down 8 1/2 cents in a quiet day of trading that also saw December corn inch up a half-cent. NOPA’s soybean crush estimate of 159.2 million bushels for June was up 15% from a year ago.
Midday: Soybeans are posting double-digit gains at midday, corn is flat, and wheat is weaker.
Corn trade is flat at midday with two-sided trade so far with generally positive trade during the day session. Cooler weather looks to hang around the next couple weeks. Ethanol board margins remain positive with some pressure from crude with ethanol futures edging higher to narrow blender margins.
Corn basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The weekly export inspections were on the lower end of the range at 1.217 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show slightly lower conditions and maturity well ahead of normal.
On the September chart we remain below the 10-day at $3.48, with the 20-day at $3.55 the next round up. Support is the fresh low of $3.37 scored yesterday with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.38 above that.
Soybean trade is finding good short covering this morning with soybeans 12 to 16 cents higher at midday after fresh lows overnight. Meal is $6 to $7 higher and oil 25 to 35 points lower. Brazil remains at a stout premium to US origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics issues with Brazil with premiums around $1.90 right now.
Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead. The daily export wire has remained quiet. Weather shouldn’t be a major driver near term for soybeans but podfill will be here soon. Weekly export inspections were good seasonally at 635,429 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show slightly lower conditions with maturity well above normal.
On the August chart, the 10-day at $8.43 is again the first level of resistance which we are still below at midday with further support the lower Bollinger Band at 8.11 with the next level resistance the 20-day at 8.63.
Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade struggling again to open the week. Harvest progress should continue to push along with the homestretch ongoing for the plains. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada with drier weather showing up again.
Russian harvest continues to move along as well with production estimates dropping another 3 million metric tons. HRW basis has remains solid through harvest with the better protein with offered premiums declining. The weekly export inspections improved at 469,523 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show winter wheat harvest past 70%, with spring conditions steady with conditions above normal.
On the September chart, Kansas City was able to finish last week just below the 10-day moving average at $4.90 with the 20-day the next resistance at $4.93.