WASDE Wheat: Increased Domestic Beginning Stocks, Production

Projected U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 74 million bushels on increased beginning stocks and higher production. Forecast 2018/19 U.S. wheat production is raised 54 million bushels to 1,881 million. The NASS July Crop Production report provides survey-based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the first time in the 2018/19 crop year.

The production forecast for durum and other spring wheat are up from last year’s low level due to improved yields and higher spring wheat area. Winter wheat production is down slightly from the June forecast. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels this month but are 11 percent below last year’s revised stocks.

The 2018/19 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected range of $4.50 to $5.50.

Foreign 2018/19 wheat supplies are decreased 9.3 million tons primarily on lower production, which is the smallest in three years. The production declines are led by a 4.4-million-ton reduction for the EU reflecting continued dryness especially in the north. Australia, Russia, and Ukraine are lowered 2.0 million, 1.5 million, and 1.0 million tons, respectively, and also reflect continued dryness.

China production is reduced 1.0 million tons on lower harvested area as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture. Global 2018/19 exports are lowered 1.9 million tons on decreased supplies. EU exports are reduced 1.5 million tons and Australia and Russia are both lowered 1.0 million tons.

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These export reductions are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Canada and a 0.7-million-ton increase for the United States. Total foreign consumption for 2018/19 is lowered 2.3 million tons on both lower food and feed and residual use.

With global supplies declining more than projected use, world ending stocks are reduced 5.3 million tons to 260.9 million.

Full report.


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