WASDE Rice: Increased Production, Higher Stocks

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

U.S. 2018/19 all rice supplies are increased this month by 4.8 million cwt to 272.3 million as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. Rice production increased by 9.8 million cwt to 213.0 million as the NASS Acreage report indicated greater rice area for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain than previously forecast.

The NASS Rice Stocks report implied significantly higher than previously estimated domestic use and residual for the 2017/18 marketing year, which resulted in lower 2018/19 beginning stocks. Total rice use for 2018/19 is increased 4.0 million cwt to 230.0 million, all on higher projected domestic and residual use. All rice exports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 102.0 million with medium- and short-grain accounting for the reduction.

Projected 2018/19 all rice ending stocks are raised to 42.3 million cwt, up 31 percent from last year with long-grain comprising most of the increase. The 2018/19 all rice season-average farm price is reduced $0.30 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.60 to $12.60.

Global 2018/19 rice supplies are raised fractionally on increased production for the United States and Vietnam more than offsetting reductions in Australia, South Korea, and Russia. World exports, while still a record, are modestly lower this month as reductions for India and Australia are not completely offset by higher exports for Vietnam and Pakistan.

Global ending stocks are raised by 0.6 million tons to 143.8 million, almost entirely due to a nearly 1.0 million increase for India.

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