DTN Grain Midday: Soybeans Take the Lead

Mid-season soybean field. ©Debra L Ferguson

Soybeans are the midday leader with wheat lagging.

CORN

Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with light two sided trade so far as the market looks towards the weekend with support from soybeans moving higher.

Harvest should continue to expand in the double-crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black-Sea-area corn remains mostly dry. U.S. weather looks to remain wet in the near term, with heat still showing in the extended forecast, along with good moisture prospects with the biggest area of concern overnight temps going into pollination.

Ethanol blending margins remain exceptionally strong with unleaded trading at a 60 cent premium to ethanol and crude working higher on OPEC production concerns. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The USDA announced 131,000 metric tons of corn sold to Mexico, and 117,000 to Panama.

On the July chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.62 which is now nearby resistance and then the 200-day at $3.82. Nearby support is the $3.44 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.38 3/4 spike low from Tuesday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 9 to 14 cents higher at midday with trade trying to establish itself better at the lower end of the range. Meal is $5 to $6 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with little fresh news on that front today.

Bean basis has remained steady to firmer, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values remaining strong on the anticipation of future business. Widespread rains should boost near term growth. Brazil continues to struggle with the logistical issues compounded by the trucker strikes with a large shipping line up.

On the July chart support is at lower Bollinger band at 8.53, and resistance the 10-day at $9.19.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower at midday with the choppy recent pattern continuing while harvest slows in the U.S. and stress continues in Russia. Wet weather for Kansas should slow harvest in the next week or so, with good overall progress so far and much of the eastern part of the state wrapped up, and heat returning next week to finish harvest.

Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness.

On the July Kansas City is back below all the major moving averages with the 200-day at $4.96 the closest to the market, and $4.71 becoming support as the fresh low.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow up 155. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 6 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 2.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are flat.

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