DTN Cotton Close: Higher Amid Oversold Readings

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December lost 455 points for the week. Mills priced 10,602 lots in July. Cotton industry applauded House passage of the farm bill.

Cotton futures ended higher amid oversold momentum readings Friday, led by July ahead of first notice day with December perhaps finding follow-through support from the U.S. weekly export sales report.

December gained 101 points to close at 85.30 cents, in the upper quarter of its 142-point range from down nine points at 84.20 to up 133 points at 85.62 cents. It lost 455 points for the week, its second straight losing week for a combined 730 points or 7.2% after gaining ground four weeks in a row for a total of 1,236 points or 15.4%.

July jumped 222 points to settle at 85.43 cents, regaining a premium over December on its biggest one-day gain since May 29 but still down 529 points for the week. It traded within a 270-point range from down 11 points at 83.10 to up 259 points at 85.80 cents. The other contracts gained 46 to 104 points.

Volume remained subdued at an electronically estimated 18,200 lots, down from a cleared 23,798 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 7,753 lots or 33% and EFP 886 lots.

Mills priced 10,602 on-call lots in July last week to reduce their outstanding sales to 15,195 lots, according to weekly call data reported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the close Thursday.

Producers priced 1,505 lots to cut their unfixed position to 1,221 lots. The net call difference thus declined 1,111 lots to 13,974, which was 63.6% of July’s open interest, up from 31.8%. The outstanding mill sales represented 69.2% of July’s OI, compared with 35.6% the prior week.

There were at the time five trading sessions left until first notice day, and open interest has continued to decline this week. July notices for Monday are expected to be posted by tonight.

Across the board, mills increased their outstanding sales in contract months from December through March 2020, but the reduction in July was more than offsetting as their total unfixed sales declined 3,682 lots to 156,485. The total unpriced producer position dropped 844 lots to 39,019.

On the policy front, U.S. cotton industry leaders applauded House passage of the farm bill this week in a 213-111 squeaker.

National Cotton Council Chairman Ron Craft of Plains, Tex., said in a statement the bill not only can help cotton producers obtain financing for capital improvements but can support a healthy and thriving rural economy that includes cotton gins, warehouses, marketing co-ops and merchants, cottonseed handlers and textile mills — and businesses that support them.

“Without strong commodity and crop insurance policies underpinning U.S. agriculture, lenders would be reluctant to provide financing to an industry operating at the mercy of weather extremes and volatile global market prices,” the High Plains ginner said.

The NCC is continuing to work for reversal of harmful changes to cotton policy during last week’s Senate Agriculture Committee consideration of its bill, Craft said. The Senate may consider its farm bill next week.

The Republican-led House got the votes, all Republican, for its version of the farm bill after House leadership agreed to hold votes on immigration bills championed by conservatives, reported DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton. The initial bill that GOP members wanted still failed earlier in the day.

Certified stocks grew 628 bales to 86,067 on Thursday, the daily ICE report showed. There were 642 newly certified days and 14 bales decertified. Open interest fell 3,880 lots to 261,946, with July’s down 2,751 lots to 3,128 and December’s down 1,339 lots to 184,858.

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