WASDE Oilseeds: Highest Domestic Crush, Lower Stocks

This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush for 2017/18. Soybean crush for 2017/18 is raised 25 million bushels to 2,015 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports.

Higher soybean meal domestic disappearance reflects stronger-than-expected use for the marketing year through April. Soybean meal exports are raised based in part on commitments through May. Soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 505 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.

Ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected at 385 million bushels, down 30 million from last month.

Price forecasts for 2018/19 are unchanged this month. The 2018/19 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $330 to $370 per short ton and 29.5 to 33.5 cents per pound, respectively.

The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and stocks compared to last month. Higher global soybean production is partly offset by lower rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is up 0.7 million tons to 355.2 million mainly on higher production for Brazil.

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A higher trend yield for the 2018/19 Brazil soybean crop reflects harvest and yield results for the 2017/18 crop, which is increased 2 million tons to 119 million. With higher production, soybean exports for Brazil are revised up for both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years. Ending stocks for Brazil are also increased with higher production and a lower crush estimate for 2016/17.

Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 87.0 million with higher stocks for Brazil partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and Argentina. Stocks for Argentina are lowered mainly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction to the 2017/18 crop to 37 million.

Other changes include lower EU rapeseed production which is reduced on lower yields for Germany and Poland, where crops experienced warm and dry weather conditions through key flowering stages.

Full report.


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