Corn posted a late rally, strong enough to set new session highs and pull both wheat and soybeans higher for the day. The latter part is interesting given July soybeans were down as much as 12 cents and Kansas City wheat had fallen 7 cents. Commercial buying provided a good deal of support to the corn market over the last hour or so.
Midday: Corn is firmer at midday, with soybeans and wheat weaker.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade finding light buying after holding support yesterday, while shaking off the weakness elsewhere. Wet weather is expected over the next week with generally warm conditions for most of the Corn Belt. The second-crop areas of Brazil should catch some showers to mitigate some stress but the crop size will likely keep trending lower.
Ethanol margins remain stable with corn and ethanol futures drifting higher to start the week, getting back close to $1.50 a gallon. The weekly crop progress showed 62% planted, 1 percentage point behind average, and 28% emerged, 1 percentage point ahead of average.
On the July chart we are just above the 20-day at $3.97 1/2 with the next level of support is 50-day at 3.94 which we tested to start the week, with resistance at the 10-day at $4.02.
Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents lower with early gains disappearing again once we reached the day session. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 lower and oil is flat to 10 higher.
South America’s recent pattern should remain intact near term, with the real and peso remaining near record lows to boost export competitiveness, with harvest moving toward the home stretch with heavy rains causing some quality issues in Argentina, with the meal rally on Monday tied to near-term supply concerns there. Weekly crop progress showed 35% planted, 9% ahead of average, and 10% emerged vs. 6% on average.
On the July chart, trade is back below the 200-day at $10.16 with the next level of support the psychological support at $10.00, while the 100-day at $10.27 is resistance, which we tested overnight.
Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade working to find better footing after the recent break. The dollar spiked hard on rising interest rates but has been moderating during the day session.
Warmer weather should help to boost maturity with the crop still well behind normal, with further stress likely if not combined with rain. Spring wheat growing areas look more open to catch up, especially with the warmer temps.
The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with weather issues limited for the moment. Black Sea values are moving back towards $198 a ton.
Weekly crop progress showed improvement with 36% for good to excellent, up 2 percentage points, and 36% poor to very poor, down 1 percentage point with 45% headed vs. 53% on average. Spring wheat is 58% planted, 9 percentage points behind average, and 14% emerged, 22 percentage points behind average.
On the July Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $5.01 support, with resistance the $5.20 area of the 50-day moving average.