Global Markets: Coarse Grains – Production to Rise, Stocks to Fall

Global coarse grain production is projected to rise, driven by corn, barley, and sorghum. However, ending stocks are projected to fall. Global corn production is projected up with larger crops for Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for the United States.

U.S. production is projected to fall based on smaller planted area in the March Prospective Plantings report and a decline in yield, while other countries expand area responding to relatively strong prices and rising demand for feed and industrial uses.

Consumption is expected to outpace production for the second year in a row, driven by the livestock and poultry sectors particularly for Southeast Asia and South America. Greater consumption draws down global ending stocks to their lowest level since 2012/13.

World barley production is projected up with gains for the European Union, Australia, and Turkey more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia.

Global consumption is forecast down largely due to Ukraine and Russia reacting to more favorable export prospects. Global trade is projected slightly higher, driven by steady growth for countries in the Middle East and rising demand from China.

China is expected to remain the world’s top importer, as the country turns to barley to partially offset a decline in sorghum imports from the United States.

Global ending stocks are set to fall to the lowest since 1983/84.

Global sorghum production is forecast higher with gains for Australia, Burkina Faso, Sudan, China, and Nigeria more than offsetting reductions for the United States, Mali, and Niger.

Global consumption is expected at the same level as last year led by the United States. Global trade is projected smaller with lower imports for China based on China’s preliminary anti-dumping duty on U.S. sorghum.

Global ending stocks fall to the lowest level since 2006/07.

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