WASDE Oilseeds: Lower Domestic Production, Increased Consumption

The 2018/19 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2017/18. The soybean crop is projected at 4,280 million bushels, down 112 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. With higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4,835 million bushels, up 2 percent from 2017/18.

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is forecast at 127.3 million tons, down 3.7 million from 2017/18 mainly on lower soybean production. Production forecasts are also lower for peanuts, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed, but higher for canola.

The U.S. soybean crush for 2018/19 is projected at 1,995 million bushels, up slightly from the revised 2017/18 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance offset by lower projected soybean meal exports. Soybean meal exports are forecast lower as Argentina’s export share recovers from the effects of drought in 2017/18. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2,290 million bushels for 2018/19, up 225 million from 2017/18.

With forecast global soybean import growth of 5 percent, the U.S. soybean export share is projected at 39 percent, up from 2017/18 but otherwise the lowest since 2012/13. Reduced stocks in South America this fall will limit export competition during the first half of the 2018/19 marketing year. U.S. ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected at 415 million bushels, down 115 million from the revised 2017/18 forecast.

The 2018/19 U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel compared with $9.35 per bushel in 2017/18. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $330 to $370 per short ton, compared with $360 per ton for 2017/18. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.5 to 33.5 cents per pound compared with 30.5 cents for 2017/18.

The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2017/18. Global oilseed production is projected up 20.9 million tons to 593.7 million, with higher soybean, sunflower, rapeseed, palm kernel, and copra partly offset by lower peanuts and cottonseed.

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Global soybean production is projected up 17.8 million tons to 354.5 million mostly due to recovery from drought in Argentina. Soybean production for Argentina is projected up 17.0 million tons to 56.0 million. Production for Brazil is flat with the revised 2017/18 crop at 117 million tons as a 4 percent increase in harvested area is offset with a return to trend yields.

The 2018/19 soybean crop for China is down 0.1 million tons to 14.1 million with a lower yield and flat harvested area as producers expand area in more profitable crops.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 4 percent in 2018/19, with China accounting for the largest share of the increase despite below-average growth in protein meal consumption. As a result of higher protein meal demand, global crush is projected up 19.9 million tons to 509.4 million and protein meal exports are up 1.7 million tons to 90.4 million.

Global vegetable oil consumption is projected at 198.6 million tons, up 7.1 million led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia. Soybean oil production gains are forecast for China and palm oil gains for Indonesia and Malaysia. Global vegetable oil ending stocks are projected up 2.0 million tons and nearing levels seen prior to the impact of El Niño on vegetable oil production in 2015/16.

Global oilseed exports are up 11.2 million tons to 186.4 million in 2018/19, with soybeans accounting for most of the increase. Soybean exports for Argentina and the United States are expected to regain global market share after declining in 2017/18. China soybean imports are forecast to reach a record 103 million tons, up 6 million from 2017/18.

With higher soybean crush and exports, global soybean ending stocks are down 5.5 million tons to 86.7 million.

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