July Minneapolis wheat fell 10 3/4 cents Monday as warmer temperatures are chasing snow away from the Northern Plains and are giving better hope for planting in 2018. July soybeans ended down 8 cents with export activity still sluggish while corn and winter wheat were mixed.
Midday: Mixed trade is seen at midday.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher in quiet midday trade with light buying to open the week. Fieldwork should expand in some areas this week with drier pockets to the east with warmer temps expected to wait until next week, with delays are expected to persist in Iowa/Minnesota area, with planting progress likely trailing average but not by a large amount. The weekly export inspections remained strong at 1.719 million metric tons.
The second crop areas of Brazil look to remain on the dry side in the near term as well, with some spotty rain. Ethanol futures have edged back under the 1.50 mark, with a soft start on the energy complex to start the week.
On the May chart we are below the 20-day at $3.82 3/8 with the 100-day at 3.71 becoming support.
Soybean trade is drifting lower, off 6 to 10 cents at midday and making new lows for the move. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points lower, with crush margins narrowing again.
The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with values remaining elevated for Brazilian producers to encourage harvest selling in the near term, and the US export wire has quieted down the last few days with no announced sales in a week.
Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, with the weather challenges rolling acres over from wheat and corn. Export inspections remained soft at 470,817 metric tons.
On the May contract, trade has slipped below the 50-day at $10.38, with the 100-day at $10.15 as the next level of support.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with KC firming after rains passed through Kansas over the weekend, with limited follow up, while more open conditions are adding pressure to the spring wheat. Warmer conditions coming should help to boost maturity with rain needed to shake off freeze damage along with salvaging diminished potential. Spring wheat growing areas look more open but will need to thaw for better progress to be made.
The stronger dollar will likely limit upside as the US becomes less competitive on the world market, barring quality bids. The weekly crop progress is likely to be steady with maturity falling further behind normal, and spring wheat planting remaining well behind normal pace. Export inspections were better than expected at 619,251 metric tons.
On the May KC contract support is the 100-day at $4.70 below that with resistance the 20-day at 4.88, which we are testing overnight.