What a long strange trip it is once again. When we get to a normal year, someone let me know – I’d like to see that. Last week’s rain hit primarily the central and southeastern portions of the state, while from Poinsett Co. to the north got around a 1/4-inch or less.
With that miss – northeast Arkansas hammered down this week, while the rest of the state sputtered along on the dry spots they could find. All in all, that could mean a very significant jump in planted acreage progress.
As of Monday (4/9) we were at 10% planted, but it won’t be a shock for that number to come in at 40% this coming Monday. To reach 50% wouldn’t be completely out of the question considering some of the night planting going on.
Interestingly enough, the biggest single week jump in planting progress since 2007 was actually last year (2017) when we went from 28% planted week 14 to 67% planted week 15. Week 14 this year was this past Monday with us at 10%.
Recent years when we were slower planting than we are now include 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2015. Some good years, some bad. The story will be written as much by the summer weather as the spring weather, so we wait.
Last week’s update hoped to shed a little light on what can/cannot be tank-mixed with Loyant, and it of course raised even more questions. Last week’s version wasn’t intended to be a catch-all, but provide some clarity. Since it didn’t seem to provide enough, below is a link to better list of what you can and cannot tank mix with Loyant.
Save this version, print it, whatever you need to do, but always refer back to the website for the most current list.
Rice News on AgFax
Command Tank Mixes
There have also been a few questions about tank mixes with Command again this year. Here is a link to tables describing aerial tank mix options with Command 3ME.
For all pesticides, consult the label prior to application to ensure that information is current and accurate. Mark Twain once said, “be careful of reading health books, you could die of a misprint.” By that I mean, double-check information against the labels to ensure accuracy.
The longer it stays wet, the more people start to consider water-seeding. Keep in mind that seed treated with CruiserMaxx Rice, NipsIt INSIDE, or NipsIt Rice SUITE cannot be water-seeded.
Seed treated with a fungicide (e.g. Apron, Maxim, Dynasty) is not prohibited from use in water-seeded rice based on those labels, but won’t provide much benefit used in this manner.
Dermacor is the only insecticide seed treatment labeled for use in water-seeded rice. It does an excellent job against rice water weevil – which is typically worse in a water-seeded system. The 24c label that allows this use expires in June of this year.
Any treated seed legally allowed to be flown, must be flown onto the field dry and cannot be pre-soaked.
Rice Market Update
Rice PLC Update:
In the April WASDE report USDA projected 2017 producer prices for long-grain would be in the range of $11.50 to $11.90 per cwt. The mid-point of this price range is $11.70 or $5.265/bu. A projected PLC Payment Rate can be estimated by subtracting $5.265/bu. from the PLC Reference Price of $6.30/bu. The result is a projected PLC Payment Rate of $1.035 per bushel (not accounting for sequestration).
For the previous three crop years ARC and PLC payment rates have been reduced by 6.8 percent. Applying that same percentage reduction, the net 2017 PLC payment would be 96 cents per bushel. The final 2017 marketing year prices and PLC payment rates for rice are expected to be announced in October 2018.
Projected 2017 PLC payment rates are updated monthly on the USDA Farm Service Agencies’ ARC/PLC website at this link: ARC/PLC Program Data.
Look under the heading “Program Year 2017 Data” for “Projected 2017 PLC Payment Rates”.
The mid-point of the 2017 price range for southern medium grain is currently $5.445/bu., which equates to a PLC payment of roughly 86 cents per bushel. As a reminder, PLC payments are made on 85% of base acres and 90% of historical average yields.
The next USDA Crop Production and WASDE report will be released on May 10, 2018. It will include the first supply/demand balance sheets for the 2018/19 marketing year. These initial new crop projections will incorporate the acreage estimates from the March NASS Prospective Plantings report.
New crop September rice has been working its way higher since the March Prospective Plantings report. Closing above $12 on Monday (4/9) was a significant technical hurdle. The September ’18 contract has not traded above $12 since last December. The April WASDE report featured lower usage estimates and higher ending stocks for long-grain, which pressured prices. However, indications that 2018 acreage would not be up as much as feared and slow planting progress in the Delta has provided some offset to slow exports and concerns over potential trade tariffs.
Results of Planting Date Studies
As another rain system moves through the state to further delay planting, it’s a good time to review planting data research to make the best decisions moving forward. You can find the results from the past three years here.