WASDE Wheat: Domestic Stocks Raised on Reduced Feed Use

Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised this month by 30 million bushels to 1,064 million, all on lower feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 29, implied less feed and residual usage for the third quarter (December-February) than previously estimated.

This report also showed record U.S. corn stocks on March 1, which are expected to continue displacing wheat for feed use for the remainder of 2017/18. No other supply or use categories are changed this month.

Based on NASS prices and marketings reported to date along with price expectations for the rest of 2017/18, the season-average farm price is unchanged at the range of $4.60 to $4.70 per bushel.

World 2017/18 wheat supplies increased this month by nearly 3.0 million tons as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million, mainly on Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. Global supplies also increased with a multi-year reduction in Iran’s food, seed, and industrial use, which raised carry-in stocks by nearly 2.0 million tons.

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Projected global 2017/18 trade is virtually unchanged on increased exports from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Argentina nearly offsetting lower exports from the EU and other exporters. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 38.5 million, which surpasses last year’s record exports by more than 10 million.

Russia continues to displace the EU and other exporters in several markets. Imports are lowered for Morocco, Brazil, and Colombia while increased for Algeria, Ethiopia, Japan, Kenya, Turkey, and the Philippines.

Projected 2017/18 world consumption is higher, primarily on increases in the EU and Indonesia, which more than offset reductions in Iran, India, and the United States. However, the increase in global supplies still exceeds the additional consumption as 2017/18 global ending stocks are 2.3 million tons higher this month at 271.2 million, a new record.

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