U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017/18 include increased crush, lower seed and residual use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is projected at a record 1,970 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting higher soybean meal prices which are supporting crush margins. Seed use is reduced in line with the plantings indicated in the March 29 Prospective Plantings report.
With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 5 million. Soybean oil changes include increased production, exports, and ending stocks. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is reduced this month reflecting lower-than-expected use through the first four months of the marketing year.
The season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.10 to $9.50, unchanged at the midpoint. The soybean oil price is projected at 30.5 to 32.5 cents per pound, also unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $340 to $360 per short ton, up $10.00 at the midpoint.
The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is lowered 5.7 million tons to 568.8 million, with a 6.1-million-ton reduction for soybean production and slightly higher projections for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, copra, and palm kernel.
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Lower soybean production for Argentina, India, and Uruguay is partly offset by higher production for Brazil. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 115.0 million tons, up 2.0 million on higher projected yields for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana due to beneficial rainfall during the growing season. For Argentina, production is lowered 7.0 million tons to 40.0 million on reduced harvested area and yield, reflecting dry conditions during January through March.
With reduced production, soybean crush for Argentina is lowered 1.8 million tons to 41.2 million, resulting in lower soybean meal and oil supplies traded globally. Other oilseed production changes include reduced sunflower and peanut production for Argentina, higher sunflowerseed production for the European Union, and increased rapeseed production for Belarus.
Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 174.1 million tons, down 0.6 million on lower soybean, peanut, and rapeseed shipments. Soybean exports are reduced 0.2 million tons as higher exports for Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine are offset by lower exports for Argentina and Uruguay. Peanut and rapeseed exports are lowered for Senegal and the European Union, respectively. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tons to 90.8 million with reductions mainly for Argentina, Brazil, and the EU.