On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 400 points, the grain sector showed little concern, posting mostly small gains on light trading volume. July K.C. wheat led grains with a 6 1/4-cent increase, followed by May soybean meal with a gain of $3.50 — both of which were related to ongoing drought concerns.
Midday: Beans are under light pressure at midday challenging the one-month lows.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday. Trade is continuing to chop around the lower end of the range, with early buying enthusiasm drying up quickly. Ethanol futures have stabilized after drifting lower early in the week; producer margins remain solid. Double crop areas in Brazil look to build some moisture in the coming days, with early harvest expanding in Argentina.
The daily wire has been quiet Thursday with the government closing for the snowstorm. The weekly export sales expectations range from 1.75-to-2.25 million metric ton with the official release delayed until Friday.
On the May chart, we slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.79, which is now resistance. The 50-day at $3.73 1/2 is support.
Soybean trade is 3-to-7 cents lower at midday with early gains fading again as trade concerns weighing down the market. Meal is $1.00-to-$2.00 higher and oil is 50-to-60 points lower. The weather pattern looks to return to some near-term dryness for much of South America with rains for much of the eastern belt incoming for the U.S., as southern planting is off to a slow start.
Crush margins have improved with meal regaining forward momentum, with a close over $370 a ton likely needed to extend momentum. The export wire has been quiet with business shifting seasonally to Brazil. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 250,000-to-500,000 metric ton range.
On the May contract, support is the 50-day at $10.20 with resistance at the 20-day at $10.49.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 5 cents higher with trade bouncing back on oversold conditions and longer-term weather uncertainty, while trade uncertainty has slowed earlier gains. The coming week looks drier again, but growth should be boosted in the short-term for many areas with better rains potentially out there in the 8-to-10 day range.
The dollar index remains below 90 on the index, which should support trade. Black Sea origin prices have been more sideways, but the U.S. remains disadvantaged on the world market. Weekly export sales are expected to remain soft at 150,000-to-350,000 metric tons.
May KC wheat support is the 100-day at $4.65, the 50-day is at $4.85.