May cotton erased Monday’s 1.62-cent drop with a 1.85-cent rally on Tuesday, as extreme drought in northern Texas remains a concern for 2018 production.
May cotton performed an about-face and closed up 1.85 cents at 83.08 on Tuesday, posting a bullish outside daily reversal with ongoing concerns about extreme drought in northern Texas. Tuesday’s seven-day forecast actually held plenty of concern for cotton with only light rain expected in the southwestern U.S. Plains and temperatures on their way into the 90s by Friday.
The forecast also showed more rain headed to the Mississippi Delta where flooding has already been a problem in early 2018. Southern Georgia will remain mostly dry, while the Carolina coasts anticipate beneficial rain.
Technically speaking, May cotton remains in an uptrend with support from noncommercial buying that picked up again the last three weeks. Friday’s CFTC data showed noncommercial traders 90% long in cotton as of Mar. 13 and that is a potential bearish concern, should May prices fall below support at 76.44.
The ICE daily stocks report showed certified stocks unchanged on Monday at 76,795.
The Cotlook A Index of world values for Mar. 19 was down 79 points to 92.10 cents, putting the premium over the May futures settlement at 10.87 cents.