Look for the cattle complex to open on a mixed basis, a slow and cautious combination of follow-through selling and the vaulted premium status of the cash feedlot trade. Lean hog futures are also staged for uneven prices in the early going with nearby issues being pressured more than deferreds.
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $149.99 +0.26*
Hogs: Stdy-$1 LR Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv $ 77.64 -0.21**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue
Cash cattle buyers and sellers will slowly retake the same cash positions on the field they left late last week. Actually, activity Monday will be pretty much limited to the distribution of new showlists. The late-month fed offering is likely to be steady to somewhat larger than last week.
Beef processing margins are decent at the start of the week, and we assume that slaughter could be somewhat larger than last week, probably around 605,000 to 610,000.
If feedlot managers continue to feel confident enough to turn a blind eye toward the discounted board, initial asking prices should be around $129 in the South and $207 plus in the North. Live and feeder futures are likely to open on a mixed basis with the board torn between residual selling and large country premiums.