USDA sees higher demand for the 2017-18 corn crop as use was increased for both exports and ethanol production for the corn crop, lowering expected ending stocks in the process.
Corn is being buoyed by lower projected Argentina production while U.S. soybeans are expected to see lower exports because of a larger Brazilian soybean crop.
USDA released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for March on Thursday. At the end of March, USDA will release quarterly grain stocks and the prospective planting report.
Thursday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn but bearish for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. Meanwhile, world ending stocks estimates were neutral to bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat, he said.
For DTN’s exclusive audio comments on today’s reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…
Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
Exports were increased by 175 million bushels to 2.225 billion bushels based on price competitiveness, record-high outstanding sales and reduced exports by Argentina. At the same time, USDA also increased expected corn ethanol use by 50 million bushels to 5.575 billion bushels.
The result was lowering the new-crop ending stocks by 225 million bushels to 2.127 billion bushels, which fell below the pre-report analysts’ estimates.
Globally, USDA forecasts Argentina’s corn crop at 36 million metric tons (1.42 billion bushels), down 3 million metric tons due to drought in February. USDA Brazil’s corn crop was projected at 94.5 mmt (3.72 billion bushels), down 0.5 mmt from the February estimate. Still, USDA’s estimate for Brazil’s corn crop comes in significantly higher than Brazil’s agricultural agency CONAB. According to Dow Jones, CONAB came in Thursday with a corn crop forecast of 87.3 mmt (3.4 billion bushels).
The average farm-gate price was bumped up 5 cents a bushel to $3.35 a bushel.
USDA again lowered exports for the 2017-18 soybean crop by 25 million bushels this month based on increased production and exports by Brazil. USDA did increase domestic soybean crush by 10 million metric tons.
Combined, the changes bump up the forecasted ending stocks for the 2017-18 crop to 555 million bushels. That came in higher than the pre-report analysts’ average.
In South America, USDA bumped up Brazil’s expected soybean crop by 1 mmt to 113 mmt (4.15 billion bushels), matching the estimate by CONAB. Argentina’s crop was lowered 7 mmt to 47 mmt (1.7 billion bushels), again due to drought in Argentina.
The range of farm prices was raised but the midpoint price for soybeans remains at $9.30 a bushels for the 2017-18 crop.
U.S. wheat exports for the 2017-18 crop were lowered 25 million bushels to 925 million bushels, while ending stocks were bumped up the same amount, ending at 1.034 billion bushels.
The average wheat price for the 2017-18 crop was bumped up 5 cents to $4.65 a bushel.
Editor’s note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CST Thursday as he looks at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit http://bit.ly/…
|WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2017-2018|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2017-2018|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2017-2018|