U.S. wheat exports for 2017/18 are reduced 25 million bushels to 925 million, while ending stocks are raised by the same amount. Exports are lowered on reduced price competitiveness in some international markets. Hard red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat exports are reduced 15 million bushels and 10 million bushels, respectively.
The season-average farm price is raised $0.05 per bushel at the midpoint of the range to $4.65 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations of higher cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year, reflecting the ongoing drought in the Southern Plains.
Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased 0.5 million tons, primarily on a higher production forecast for Kazakhstan. World exports are raised fractionally with Russia increased 1.5 million tons, partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for the EU. Russia exports are now projected at 37.5 million tons, up 35 percent from the previous year’s record and surpassing EU exports by 12.5 million.
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Global imports are also raised, led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Turkey, which is largely attributed to supplies from Russia. Total world consumption is reduced, primarily on a 2.0-million-ton reduction for India on reports of weakening demand from rising domestic prices.
Despite the reduction, total India consumption is still up marginally from the previous year’s record. With global supplies rising and total demand falling, world ending stocks are raised 2.8 million tons to a record 268.9 million.