May soybeans ended up 4 1/4 cents Friday in spite of news from USDA that China cancelled 12.1 million bushels of soybean export sales last week, resulting in a net sales reduction for the U.S. last week. Corn and winter wheat were steady to slightly lower in quiet trading.
Midday: Mixed trade at midday with soybeans firmer and corn/wheat lower. March option expiration is today.
Corn trade is fractionally lower at midday; we have been mixed with less than a 3 cent trading range. Ethanol margins are steady this morning with ethanol futures flat to lower. U.S. export values should remain pretty competitive.
There was a 115,000 metric tons sold to Egypt daily report and the weekly sales remaining strong at 1.56 million metric tons. Double-crop areas in Brazil look to build some moisture in the coming days, but that is slowing planting progress. The USDA outlook forum pegged corn acres at 90 million.
On the March chart support is at the 10-day at $3.66 with the 20-day at 3.63 below that, with the 200-day moving average at $3.76 the highest moving average and major resistance with March option expiration putting the $3.70 area in play for today.
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents higher at midday with two-sided trade seen so far with weather and export cancellations battling so far. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 25 to 35 points higher. The weather pattern looks to keep Argentina dry, and Brazil wet in the near term that is limiting downside, with podfill season fast approaching for Argentina.
Volatility should continue here in the near term with overbought conditions persisting in the near term. Early Brazilian harvest will continue despite being slowed by rains, causing some crop losses.
The USDA outlook forum put soybean acres at 90 million. An export sale of 106,000 metric tons was announced to unknown with weekly sales disappointing with -101,900 metric tons of old crop, 221,100 of new, meal 131,600 metric tons, and oil 42,900 of oil.
On the March, support is the 10-day moving average at $10.19, with resistance the $10.39, which is the six-month high scored Tuesday, and we traded within a quarter of a cent of this morning.
Wheat trade is fractionally to 2 cents lower at midday with trade backing off the early session highs. The extended forecast continues to be short on moisture for the SW Plains with more action east and north. The dollar is higher again today, but remains below 90 on the index.
The Russian crop will continue to be watched with less cover than usual, with Black Sea values continuing to edge higher with export offers in the $206-a-ton range for the most part. The outlook forum put wheat acres at 46.5 million. Weekly export sales were in line with recent weeks at 328,900 metric tons.
On the March Kansas City wheat support is at the 200-day at $4.72 which we keep chopping around, with resistance the recent highs at $4.84.