Dossett on Rice: What About that Correction?

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Cash Market

  • Spot prices in Thailand have continued to decline to $413 CWT from $428 CWT last week. India prices have firmed back up to the level we saw 3 weeks ago. The Iraq tender went to Uruguay as we had expected. Now there is a request for US-only price to be submitted to Iraq. We were very high on the last tender, so maybe they really like our quality or there is political pressure involved.
  • On Friday, February 23rd, USDA released both Weekly Exports and Outlook Conference Supply and Demand. The exports were a little better at 59,000 new sales and shipments of 27,800, which was low.
  • On the S&D they showed a long grain increase of 20% in planted acres, which will take rice up to 2.18 million acres. USDA also said that domestic rice demand would increase 5% to 98 million CWT. Exports are projected to be up 6% to 75 million CWT. The bottom line is ending stocks for long grain projected at 25.8 million CWT, which is a huge increase from last year.

Futures Market

  • We saw another 114 rice receipts leave Harrisburg, Arkansas warehouse, so now we are down to 1,128 registered receipts. There are approximately 3,000 contracts still open in March; FND is Wednesday, February 28th. I believe the correction is over. The question is: will this May contract start the next rally before or after FND? Standby!

Markham B. Dossett was a charter member of the New Orleans Commodity Exchange. He has traded rice since early 1981. He owns Talon Asset Management LLC where he hedges rice, soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and cattle for producers in the South and Southwest.

** Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.


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