March soybean meal closed up $14.00 Monday to its highest spot close in over a year, pulling March soybeans up 18 3/4 cents, to $10.01 3/4. Winter wheat prices also posted double-digit gains as conditions remain dry in the western U.S. Plains.
Midday: Soybeans and wheat lead trade at midday.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with drier weather in Argentina helping trade back to the upper end of the range. Ethanol margins will open the week steady to under slight pressure with ethanol futures edging higher along with corn.
Basis is expected to remain mostly steady to weaker with trade at the upper end of the range. The daily export wire has been quieter with weekly export inspections edging lower at 835,131 metric tons of corn.
On the March chart support is now the 20-day at $3.58 with the 100-day at 3.57 below that, with the 200-day moving average at $3.76 the highest moving average resistance after the $3.68 upper Bollinger band.
Soybean trade is 8 to 14 cents higher at midday with trade buying with Argentina remaining dry in the next while harvest in Brazil will continue to expand, with China canceling 455,000 metric tons of purchases this morning to add resistance. Meal is $10 to $11 higher, and oil is narrowly mixed.
There is potential for another light system in Argentina late in the week, but otherwise arid conditions continue with Brazil expected to remain fairly moist. The Brazilian real has slipped vs. the dollar in recent days, likely keeping the export pace restrained, especially with early Brazilian beans now starting to come out.
The weekly export inspections were solid at 1.313 million metric tons, and unknown bought 314,000 metric tons combined of old and new crop combined to partially offset the Chinese cancellations. On the March, support is the 100-day at $9.88, with resistance the upper bollinger band at 10.02, which we tested this morning.
Wheat trade is 4 to 10 cents higher at midday with support from the row crops and drier conditions on the plains. The may be relief again in the extended forecast but the dry trend is expected to remain entrenched for the plains.
The Black Sea area has seen some stressful weather for winter as well with little protective cover. The dollar is just above 90 on the index, with trade mostly holding gains even with the variability in the outside markets. Weekly export inspections were better at 487,902 metric tons.
On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the 10-day at $4.69, which trade has moved back above overnight, with the 200-day at $4.72 just below the market at midday.