Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased.
Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, which indicated higher-than-expected use in the first half of 2017/18. Additionally, implied flour extraction rates were lower in the second quarter, as compared to last year, and a continuation of this trend is expected to support increased wheat for food usage into the second half of 2017/18.
No other supply or use categories are changed this month. Based on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the rest of the marketing year, the projected season-average farm price (SAFP) remains unchanged at the midpoint of $4.60 per bushel. However, the projected SAFP range is narrowed by 5 cents at both ends of the range to $4.55 to $4.65.
Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased, primarily on higher production forecasts for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina’s wheat production increased by 500,000 tons to 18.0 million based on higher-than-expected yields from the later harvest stages. Ukraine wheat production increased 481,000 tons to 27.0 million based on updated government data.
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World 2017/18 trade is raised this month as higher exports from Russia, Argentina, and Canada more than offset reduced exports from the EU and the United States. Projected imports are increased for Indonesia and several African countries while reduced for India, the EU, Iran, Brazil, and Mexico.
Indonesia’s imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on increases for both food and feed use. Indonesia is now the leading global wheat importer, surpassing Egypt, the traditional leader. Total world consumption is projected 3.1 million tons higher, primarily on greater usage from Indonesia and China.
Projected global ending stocks are 1.9 million tons lower this month at 266.1 million but remain significantly higher than a year ago.