WASDE Oilseeds: Domestic Soybean Exports Decline

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. With soybean crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised 60 million bushels to 530 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2017/18 is projected at $8.90 to $9.70 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $335 per short ton, up $5 at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 578.6 million tons, down 1.5 million with lower soybean production partly offset by higher cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 1.7 million tons to 346.9 million.

Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 112.0 million tons, up 2.0 million, as favorable weather throughout the growing season has raised yield prospects. Argentina production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 54.0 million on lower harvested area and reduced yields resulting from periods of unseasonable warmth and dryness.

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Soybean production is also reduced for several other countries including Paraguay, Bolivia, India, Ukraine, and South Africa.

Other changes include reduced sunflowerseed production for South Africa, increased cottonseed production for China, and lower cottonseed production for India. Global oilseed crush for 2017/18 is projected at 487.5 million tons, down 1.0 million. Reduced soybean crush for Argentina and India accounts for most of the change.

Global oilseed stocks are projected lower with reduced soybean stocks for Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, and India more than offsetting an increase for the United States.

Full report.

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