The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower exports and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is lowered 300,000 bales to 14.5 million based on a lagging pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 6.0 million bales, equivalent to 34 percent of total disappearance.
The marketing year average price received by producers is projected to average between 67 and 71 cents per pound, unchanged from January’s range.
The 2017/18 world cotton forecasts include slightly higher production, lower consumption, and higher ending stocks. World production is 400,000 bales higher than last month, as higher estimates for China, Brazil, and South Africa offset lower expectations for India and Australia.
Global consumption is forecast 325,000 bales lower, as decreases for India and Thailand offset an increase for Vietnam.
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World ending stocks are projected 760,000 bales higher as a 1.1-million-bale increase in China’s projected ending stocks—and higher U.S. stocks—offsets declines for India, Australia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Vietnam.