WASDE Coarse Grains: Reduced U.S. Corn Stocks on Higher Exports

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased exports and reduced stocks. Exports are raised 125 million bushels, reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina and Ukraine. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 125 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.30 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.

The U.S. sorghum supply, use, and midpoint price forecasts are unchanged relative to last month.

Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is projected 2.3 million tons lower to 1,321.9 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater consumption, and lower stocks relative to last month.

Global corn production is lowered 2.8 million tons largely reflecting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. For Argentina, persistent heat and dryness during January and early February reduced yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Production is lowered for Ukraine based on the latest official statistics. Small increases for Moldova, Mexico, Bangladesh, and Thailand are partly offsetting.

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Barley production is raised for Argentina. Mexico sorghum production is increased.

Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include higher projected corn exports for the United States and Brazil, with reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Turkey, the EU, and Brazil.

Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine that more than offset increases for Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks, at 203.1 million tons, are down 3.5 million from last month.

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