March soybean meal closed up $7.00 Monday, its sixth consecutive session higher after Argentina’s crops experienced another weekend of mostly dry weather. Corn ended the day down a half cent, and Chicago wheat was up 3 cents with more dry weather expected in the western Plains this week.
Midday: Soybeans are the midday leader, with corn and wheat flat to lower.
Corn trade is fractionally lower at midday with trade chopping right around the 50-day moving average in light two-sided trade. Ethanol margins are slightly tighter with ethanol futures slightly lower. Basis is expected to be steady to start the week with corn movement slow to start. Blizzard conditions will support livestock consumption but warmer weather is expected again on the backside of the system.
With the government shutdown, export inspections were still released today from last week, but will be postponed coming forward if the shutdown continues, with 668,946 metric tons moved last week.
On the March chart support is the 50-day at $3.52 we closed above to close last week, with the 20-day at $3.51 below that, and resistance at the 100-day at $3.58. March futures have been in an 8 1/2 cent trading range for the past six weeks.
Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with the March contract testing resistance to open the week with drier weather in Argentina continuing in the immediate term. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern with more improvement expected in the north later in the week.
Basis and carry remains mostly sideways. Export inspections were the best in a month at 1.419 million metric tons. On the March, support is the 10-day and 20-day $9.65 and resistance the 200-day at $9.79, which we have moved above overnight, along with the 50-day at $9.83, with the 100-day at $9.86 above that which we are testing at midday.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with the market reluctant to extend gains so far with corn turning weaker. Warmer weather should be the rule in the near term, but moisture will likely remain short in the near term for much of the plains. The dollar remains below 91 on the index with the trend still lower, with rallies being sold especially with the government shut down ongoing.
The gap between U.S. and Russian origin has narrowed but remains more favorable to Russia. Weekly export inspections improved slightly to 337,980 metric tons.
On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10, with the weekly low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages concentrated at $4.30 which we are tested overnight.