Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 25 million bushels on reduced exports. This reduction is primarily attributed to heightened Canadian competition expected from its increased exportable supplies. Canada and the United States compete in several of the same markets in Latin America and East Asia. No other supply or use categories are revised this month.
Based on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the rest of the marketing year, the projected 2017/18 season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at the midpoint of $4.60 per bushel. However, the SAFP is narrowed by 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $4.70.
Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are increased, primarily on higher production forecasts for Canada and the European Union more than offsetting production declines in Brazil, South Africa, and Yemen.
Canadian wheat production is raised 3.0 million tons to 30.0 million, largely on increased yields in the Prairie Provinces as reported in Statistics Canada’s Production of Principal Field Crops report, released on December 6. EU wheat production is raised 1.0 million tons to 152.5 million, mainly on higher production in Romania, Poland, Latvia, and Bulgaria.
World 2017/18 trade is greater this month as higher exports from Canada, Russia, and Ukraine more than offset reduced U.S. exports. Projected imports are increased for Indonesia, China and Brazil. Indonesia’s imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 11.5 million, primarily on higher expected feed wheat usage.
Total world consumption is projected 2.1 million tons higher, primarily on greater usage from Indonesia, Canada, and the EU. Projected global ending stocks are 0.9 million tons higher this month at 268.4 million, which is a new record.