WASDE Rice: Reduced Rough Rice Exports Partially Offset by Higher Milled Trade

Total 2017/18 U.S. rice supplies are unchanged at 248.9 million cwt. Exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt (all medium- and short-grain) on increased competition from other suppliers in the Mediterranean region.

A 2.0-million-cwt reduction in rough rice exports is partially offset by a 1.0-million-cwt increase in milled. Export demand has been better than expected in important milled rice markets such as Iraq and Haiti but less favorable in rough rice markets, most notably Venezuela.

The all rice marketing year average price is lowered $0.20 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $12.30 to $13.30. All classes of rice are reduced this month.

Global rice production for 2017/18 is raised 2.3 million tons to 483.5 million led by a 2.0-million-ton increase for China and a 0.4-million-ton increase for Burma. The China increase is based on updated production data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Burma’s increase is on slightly higher harvested area and better-than-expected yields.

Global exports and total use are each raised 0.4 million tons. With total supplies rising faster than use, world ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 140.7 million. China ending stocks are raised 2.0 million tons to 94.5 million; the largest since 1999/2000.

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