This month’s 2017/18 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher exports, slightly higher production, and lower ending stocks. Production is raised 63,000 bales as increases in the Southwest are largely offset by decreases in other regions.
Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised 300,000 bales due to reduced production in other countries. Ending stocks are now projected at 5.8 million bales, 200,000 lower than forecast in November, but more than double their 2016/17 level.
The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is raised 3 cents at each end, to a midpoint of 66 cents.
The global 2017/18 cotton forecasts include lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Global production is reduced 1.5 million bales as reductions for Pakistan, India, Burkina Faso, Argentina, and Australia are only partly offset by increases in Turkey and Central Asia.
A 1.0-million-bale decline in India’s estimated beginning stocks results in a similar decline in global 2017/18 beginning stocks. The revision in India’s beginning stocks reflects higher estimated consumption since 2015/16, and both India’s and world 2017/18 consumption is forecast higher this month—a 335,000-bale increase in the global forecast.
World consumption is forecast to grow at a 4.2 percent annual rate in 2017/18, more than double its long-run level. Projected world ending stocks are 2.9 million bales lower this month than in November, and at 87.9 million bales are now forecast marginally higher than the year before.