Monday turned out to be another winner for bearish bets on grains as March corn closed within a tick of its contract low and winter wheat fell to new lows. January soybeans ended down 7 1/4 cents with light to moderate rain expected in Argentina this week.
Midday: Trade is lower across the board at midday.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with pressure spilling over from soybeans and wheat. Ethanol margins look to be flat to start the week with ethanol futures edging lower this morning. Basis and carry is expected to be stable to start the week.
Corn in South America is mostly two to three weeks out from pollination starting with an improved extended forecast. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 658,403 metric tons. USDA announced 110,000 metric tons sold to Mexico.
On the March chart, support is the contract low at $3.48 3/4 printed three weeks ago with trade testing that area at midday. Resistance is at the $3.53 20-day moving average, then the 50-day moving average at 3.59.
Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade seeing pressure again from an improved extended forecast and demand questions in the near term. Meal is 3.50 to 4.50 lower, and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. South American weather looks better with rains expected in the next seven days for some of the driest areas and better coverage after that heading toward Christmas.
The weekly export inspections were very disappointing at 1.228 million metric tons. On the January chart, support is the 100-day at $9.81. Resistance is at the $9.94 10-day.
Wheat trade is 1 to 7 cents lower at midday with fresh lows being scored again for the winter wheats on broader selling pressure with spillover from the weak row-crop trade. The Plains look to remain dry with above-normal temperatures returning.
The Australian harvest should continue to push on this week with overall harvest pressure starting to fade. Russia remains the dominant origin in the world export markets, with the recent dollar rally adding to that advantage.
Weekly export inspections were soft again at 316,387 metric tons. On the March KC contract, chart support is the $4.13 fresh contract low scored on overnight, with the 20-day at $4.31 noted chart resistance.