March Minneapolis wheat dropped 12 1/2 cents to a new five-month low after Statistics Canada raised its all wheat estimate from 27.1 million metric tons to nearly 30.0 mmt for 2017. Corn stayed mostly quiet, but January soybeans fell back 5 3/4 cents from this week’s South American weather-related rally.
Midday: Trade is lower across the board at midday, led by soybeans and wheat.
Corn trade is 1 cent lower at midday with pressure from soybeans and wheat helping to drag trade lower, but momentum is turning with the market 2 off the low. The weekly ethanol report showed new record production, up 3.94% on the week, with stocks up 2.27%, and gasoline demand up 1.7%. Ethanal is down at midday along with crude, down over a buck, which should weigh on trade this afternoon.
Carry and basis have generally been steady with isolated basis strength. Colder weather coming up should boost livestock consumption. On the March chart support is the low at $3.49. Resistance is the 50-day moving average at 3.60.
Soybean trade is 8 to 9 cents lower at midday with a wetter extended forecast for South America helping trade to turn lower and fill the gap from Sunday. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. South American weather looks better in the 8-14 day, with the next 7 still on the dry side for Argentina.
Basis is likely to remain steady in the near term. The export wire will be watched for further activity with nothing announced to start the week. On the January chart resistance is the new high at $10.15, which where the higher end resistance was coming into the day, with support the 10-day at $9.95 which we tested this morning. Midday momentum is flat to higher with trade around a nickel off the lows.
Wheat trade is 6 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade making a new low fractionally this morning as trade continues to test lows after failing at highs. The plains are turning colder with moisture looking to remain limited. Australian harvest should continue to push on this week with overall harvest pressure starting to fade there. Black Sea values have remained steady to weak with Russia working to push more bushels out.
On the March KC support is the $4.22 1/2 low scored this morning, with the 20-day at $4.36, as resistance.