Projected U.S. 2017/18 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels due to increased exports. Recent sales to Iraq support a higher export projection with Hard Red Winter accounting for the entire increase.
The latest NASS Flour Millings Products report, issued November 1, indicated only a modest increase for food use for 2016/17 and supported the current projection of 950 million bushels for 2017/18.
Ending stocks are projected at 935 million bushels, down 246 million from the previous year but still above the 5-year-average. The season-average farm price is unchanged at a midpoint of $4.60.
Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are down fractionally with decreased beginning stocks but increased production. Global production is raised 0.8 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for the EU on updated harvest results.
Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Pakistan. Exports are raised 0.6 million tons with the United States and Russia up 0.7 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. Australia exports are lowered 0.5 million. Global use is raised fractionally this month.
With supplies decreasing and total use increasing, ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons but remain record large.