The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop is reduced 1.1 million cwt to 178.6 million on lower yields and slightly lower harvested area. This is the smallest all rice crop since 1996/97. The average yield forecast is lowered 35 pounds per acre to 7,469. Decreases in California, Missouri, and Texas are partially offset by an increase in Arkansas.
The long-grain crop is reduced 0.8 million cwt to 126.3 million. This is the smallest long grain crop since 2011/12. Medium- and short-grain production is lowered 0.3 million cwt to 52.3 million. No other supply and demand changes are made this month.
All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.1 million cwt to 27.8 million, which would be the lowest all rice ending stocks in fourteen years. The all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at a range of $12.70 to $13.70 per cwt.
Global rice supplies for 2017/18 are raised 18.3 million tons mainly on a multi-year revision to China’s stocks estimates beginning in 2010/11. The large multi-year changes in China stocks reflect significant government procurement since 2013 as well as reductions in estimated per capita rice consumption. For more information see page 11 of the October Grain World Markets and Trade Report (here).
Global rice production is increased 0.4 million tons to 483.8 million with increases for Nigeria and Egypt partially offset by a reduction for Bangladesh. For 2017/18, global trade and total consumption are changed fractionally as a 1.3-million-ton increase in Nigeria’s consumption is partially offset by a 0.7-million-ton reduction for China.
Global 2017/18 ending stocks are raised 18.0 million tons to 141.5 million, the highest since 2000/01. China is estimated to hold 65 percent of global rice stocks.