The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 643,000 bales, largely in Texas and Georgia. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is reduced 400,000 bales to 14.5 million, due to reduced U.S. production and strong competitor shipments.
Ending stocks are forecast 200,000 bales below the previous month’s forecast. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 32.5 percent is virtually unchanged from the previous month’s forecast, and the highest since 2008/09. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is 55.0 to 65.0 cents per pound; the midpoint of 60.0 cents is unchanged from the previous month’s projection.
The global cotton supply and demand forecasts for 2017/18 include relatively small increases from the previous month for production, consumption, and trade. Production is raised about 100,000 bales as larger expected crops in Argentina, Brazil, and Greece more than offset the reduction in the forecast for the United States.
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Vietnam is the primary driver behind a 250,000-bale increase in projected world consumption, while a 440,000-bale increase in projected 2017/18 world cotton trade reflects increases in India, Australia, and Brazil that more than offset lower expected U.S. exports.