November soybeans posted its highest close in over two months after USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks from 475 million to 430 million bushels. Corn tagged along for a 3-cent gain even though USDA raised its yield estimate to 171.8 bushels per acre.
Corn and wheat lead trade lower ahead of the WASDE report; corn is at contract lows at midday.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday trading to the $3.44 1/4 contract low. Ethanol margins have improved slightly this week with the weekly report showing production down 4.26% on the week, with stocks down .1% with gasoline demand up 2.3%.
Another batch of storms will limit near term progress in the west/central parts of the belt. The WADSE report is expected show yields at 170.1, up slightly from last month with production at 14.204, and carryout at 2.289 billion bushels. The USDA announced 120,000 metric tons of corn sold to Mexico on the daily wire with exports needing to expand to support the market.
On the December chart support is at the $3.44 1/4 contract low with resistance at the $3.51 20-day then the $3.58 3-week high.
Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with trade remaining in the $9.65-$9.70 range ahead of the report. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil 15 to 25 points lower. The WASDE report is expected to put yields at 50 BPA, production at 4.447 billion bushels, and carryout at 447 million bushels.
South American weather remains mixed in the near term with drier weather expected for Argentina to allow planting to progress while northern Brazil remains excessively dry for the early part of the growing season. The weekly export sales are delayed because of the holiday on Monday.
On the November chart, the recent $9.37 low remains major chart support, with the 10-day at $9.64 holding nearby with resistance at the $9.76 200-day moving average which we tested overnight then the $9.87-$9.89 area of the two-month highs.
Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade seeing renewed selling ahead of the report after initial mixed action. The dollar has popped slightly overnight but remains below 93 on the index.
U.S. export business will continue to be at a disadvantage in the near term with Black Sea origins continuing to dominate with Russia working to boost logistics capacity coming forward. Australia will see more focus coming forward as well. The WASDE report is expected to have carryout at 946 million bushels.
On the December Kansas City support is the contract low at $4.20 with the 10-day at $4.35 resistance.